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^{a}Missing values ranged from 0% to 8%. PV+=positive predictive value, PV−=negative predictive value, LR+=positive likelihood ratio, LR−=negative likelihood ratio. Prior probability=.05.^{b}Oral or inhalation corticosteroid use of >90 d.^{c}Measured with the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (range=0–24)^{24}; >17 indicated severe disability.^{d}Included in the model: osteoporosis, age of ≥75 years, trauma, back pain intensity score of ≥7, and thoracic pain. Area under the curve=0.78 (range=0.69–0.87).