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Workforce Projections 2010–2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States

Michel D. Landry, Laurita M. Hack, Elizabeth Coulson, Janet Freburger, Michael P. Johnson, Richard Katz, Joanne Kerwin, Megan H. Smith, Henry C. “Bud” Wessman, Diana G. Venskus, Patricia L. Sinnott, Marc Goldstein
DOI: 10.2522/ptj.20150010 Published 1 January 2016
Michel D. Landry
M.D. Landry, BScPT, PhD, Doctor of Physical Therapy Division, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Box 104002, Durham, NC 27708 (USA).
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Laurita M. Hack
L.M. Hack, PT, DPT, MBA, PhD, FAPTA, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania.
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Elizabeth Coulson
E. Coulson, PT, MBA, Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Science, Chicago, Illinois.
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Janet Freburger
J. Freburger, PT, PhD, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
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Michael P. Johnson
M.P. Johnson, PT, PhD, OCS, BAYADA Home Health Care, Moorestown, New Jersey.
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Richard Katz
R. Katz, PT, DPT, MA, Adient Health, Moorpark, California; California State University, Northridge, California; and Chapman University, Orange, California.
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Joanne Kerwin
J. Kerwin, PT, PhD, MMHS, CareGroup Home Care, Watertown, Massachusetts.
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Megan H. Smith
M.H. Smith, MLS, Research Department, American Physical Therapy Association, Alexandria, Virginia.
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Henry C. “Bud” Wessman
H.C. “Bud” Wessman, JD, MSPT, LNHA, University of North Dakota School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Grand Forks, North Dakota.
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Diana G. Venskus
D.G. Venskus, PT, PhD, Marymount University, Arlington, Virginia.
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Patricia L. Sinnott
P.L. Sinnott, PT, PhD, MPH, Health Economics Resource Center, VA Palo Alto Health Care System, Menlo Park, California.
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Marc Goldstein
M. Goldstein, EdD, Research Department (Retired), American Physical Therapy Association.
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Figures

Figure 1.
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Figure 1.

A representation of the supply and demand workforce model, as drawn with the STELLA software, to predict the numbers of physical therapists (PTs) required to meet the health care demands in the United States (2010–2020). FTE=full-time equivalent.

Figure 2.
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Figure 2.

Projections of the 2011 model. FTEs=full-time equivalents.

Figure 3.
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Figure 3.

Projections of the 2012 model. FTEs=full-time equivalents.

Figure 4.
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Figure 4.

Projections of the 2013 model. FTEs=full-time equivalents.

Tables

Table.
Table.

Projected Undersupply and Oversupply of Physical Therapists in 2020 Based on the Best Available Data in Years 2011, 2012, and 2013 and Across 3 Attrition Rates

  • a No model was generated for a 2.5% attrition rate during 2011.

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Vol 96 Issue 1 Table of Contents
Physical Therapy: 96 (1)

Issue highlights

  • Manual Therapy and Therapeutic Exercise for Temporomandibular Disorders
  • Enablers and Barriers to Hip and Knee Osteoarthritis Care
  • Objective Measures of Physical Activity in Youth With Cerebral Palsy
  • Aligning Documentation With Congenital Muscular Torticollis Clinical Practice Guidelines
  • Policy-Making Theory and Analytical Framework in Policy Analysis
  • Quality Indicators in Physical Therapist Practice
  • Therapy in Skilled Nursing Facilities for Patients With Hip Fracture
  • Workforce Projections 2010舑2020
  • Physical Function and 30-Day Readmission
  • Evidence-Based Approach to Rotator Cuff Rehabilitation
  • Corrective Bandage for Metatarsus Adductus
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Workforce Projections 2010–2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States
Michel D. Landry, Laurita M. Hack, Elizabeth Coulson, Janet Freburger, Michael P. Johnson, Richard Katz, Joanne Kerwin, Megan H. Smith, Henry C. “Bud” Wessman, Diana G. Venskus, Patricia L. Sinnott, Marc Goldstein
Physical Therapy Jan 2016, 96 (1) 71-80; DOI: 10.2522/ptj.20150010

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Workforce Projections 2010–2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States
Michel D. Landry, Laurita M. Hack, Elizabeth Coulson, Janet Freburger, Michael P. Johnson, Richard Katz, Joanne Kerwin, Megan H. Smith, Henry C. “Bud” Wessman, Diana G. Venskus, Patricia L. Sinnott, Marc Goldstein
Physical Therapy Jan 2016, 96 (1) 71-80; DOI: 10.2522/ptj.20150010
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    • Abstract
    • Assessing the Physical Therapist Workforce
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Subjects

  • Special Series and Special Issues
    • Health Services Research Special Series
  • Physical Therapist Practice
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  • Health Services Research
  • Health Policy & Administration
    • Health Care System
    • Economics

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